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the country has an incentive to default after a liquidity shock. Indeed, we show that the country may choose to retain … world with liquidity crises and strategic default, we model a contracting game between international lenders and a country … probability of liquidity shocks is high enough; however the cost of debt increases in reserves when the lenders anticipate that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125687
anticipate that the country has an incentive to default after a liquidity shock. Indeed, in the event of such a shock, we show … world with liquidity crises and strategic default, we model a contracting game between international lenders and a country … reserves if the probability of liquidity shocks is high enough; however the cost of debt increases in reserves when the lenders …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132969
credit markets, liquidity demands rise in a country's domestic banking sector, which raise the probability of bank runs and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027906
This paper explores how selective default expectations affect the pricing of sovereign bonds in a historical laboratory: the German default of the 1930s. We analyze yield differentials between identical government bonds traded across various creditor countries before and after bond market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014495920
How do oil price movements affect sovereign spreads in an oil-dependent economy? I develop a stochastic general equilibrium model of an economy exposed to co-moving oil price and output processes, with endogenous sovereign default risk. The model explains a large proportion of business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858384
We study the role of domestic financial institutions in sustaining capital flows to the private and public sector of a country whose government can default on its debt. As in recent public debt crises, in our model public defaults weaken banks' balance sheets, disrupting domestic financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155775
We analyse the international transmission of interest rates by focusing on the role of the accumulation of international reserves and on the financing of sovereign debt. An increase in foreign exchange reserves is expected to moderate the influence of U.S. interest rates. However, a high level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240933
This Feature considers the debts of quasi-sovereign states in light of proposals to let them file for bankruptcy protection. States that have ceded some but not all sovereign prerogatives to a central government face distinct challenges as debtors. It is unhelpful to analyze these challenges...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113162
Should debtor countries support each other during sovereign debt crises? We answer this question through the lens of a two-country sovereign-default model that we calibrate to the euro-area periphery. First, we look at cross-country bailouts. We find that whenever agents anticipate their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013310053
This paper tests the effect of sovereign debt structure on default likelihood. Sovereign debt structure is identified on the basis of maturity, creditor type and currency composition. The paper uses panel logit model to estimate the likelihood of default. The results provide evidence that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082631