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Heteroscedasticity) volatility dynamics. DCS models are robust to extreme observations, whereas standard financial time series models are … observations, stochastic seasonality with dynamic amplitude, and volatility dynamics. These seasonality dynamics of the GTQ/USD are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033379
Many empirical studies find a negative correlation between the returns on the nominal spot exchange rate and the lagged forward discount. This forward discount anomaly implies that the current forward rate is a biased predictor of the future spot rate. A large number of studies in the existing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011512994
Linear correlation is only an adequate means of describing the dependence between two random variables when they are jointly elliptically distributed. When the joint distribution of two or more variables is not elliptical the linear correlation coefficient becomes just one of many possible ways...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014128296
exchange rate with respect to the currencies of major trading partner country USA. The daily data is used for the time period … distribution. We find that the volatility of the Pakistani rupee is best elucidated by the EGARCH process as using the past … volatility. The coefficient of moving average of the conditional mean equation suggests that percentage change in the exchange is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107625
This paper attempts to identify the sources of U.K. exchange rate and relative consumer price fluctuations between 1973 and 1994. We follow Clarida and Gali (1994) in using the Blanchard and Quah (1989) structural VAR (SVAR) method to identify the effects of three structural shocks within a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014209306
breaks) in the volatility of financial time series. Comparative study of three techniques: ICSS, NPCPM and Cheng's algorithm … breaks in volatility, while Cheng's technique works well only when a single break occurs. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011393264
-a-vis four other currencies. The impact of exogenous variables in modelling volatility is considered using both the GARCH (1 … indicate that the majority of the parameters are significant and that volatility is quite persistent. Furthermore, the results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011661515
The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this … paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility …, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week effects, leverage effects and volatility level effects. Applying the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335205
estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or …This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or …This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012714199