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The accurate forecast of the foreign currencies exchange rates at the ultra high frequency electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets is a main topic of our research: 1) the present state of the foreign currencies exchange markets in Asia, Europe and North America; 2) the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013057
We propose and estimate a quantitative model of exchange rates in which the participantsin the FX market are intermediaries subject to value-at-risk (VaR) constraints. Higher volatilitytranslates into tighter VaR constraints, and intermediaries require higher returns to holdforeign assets....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012854942
In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipate currency crises. When debt crises are defined as sovereign distress-when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212322
the U.S dollar numeraire, amplified in states of high anticipated volatility, low liquidity, and that arbitrageurs can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843762
traditional currency risk factors, liquidity and market volatility variables, and transaction costs. Finally, the explanatory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012901550
We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero …-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward … slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates significant excess returns. The covariation with volatility carry returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902489
We investigate the pricing of volatility risks in currency markets. First, we show that pricing ability of volatility … risk is concentrated in some of its components. Diffusive volatility dominates jump volatility in pricing carry trade … returns, while jump volatility is important in jointly explaining carry trade and momentum returns. Both short-run and long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013012552
We develop an empirical model of exchange rate returns, applied separately to samples of developed (DM) and developing (EM) economies' currencies against the dollar. Monetary policy stance of the global central banks, measured via a natural-language-based approach, has a large effect on exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850036
We assess the role played by exchange rates in buffering or amplifying the propagation of shocks across international equity markets. Using copula functions we model the joint dependence between exchange rates and two global equity markets and, from a copula framework, we obtain the conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012549999
-whether financial intermediation is performed through banks or markets-for macroeconomic volatility, against the backdrop of increased … volatility. Expanding the sample to 121 developing countries confirms this result, although this role of shock-absorber fades …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871772