forecasting, the authors propose a new factor multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) model for realized covariance measures …

Recent literature has focuses on realized volatility models to predict financial risk. This paper studies the benefit … volatility models are compared in terms of their VaR forecasting performances through a Monte Carlo study and an analysis based … on empirical data of eight Chinese stocks. The results suggest that careful modeling of jumps in realized volatility …

ARFIMAX models are applied in estimating the intra-day realized volatility of the CAC40 and DAX30 indices. Volatility … clustering and asymmetry characterize the logarithmic realized volatility of both indices. ARFIMAX model with time … superior next trading day's realized volatility forecasts …

This paper studies predictability of realized volatility of U.S. Treasury futures using high-frequency data for 2-year … to generate systemic under-predictions of future realized volatility. …

Two volatility forecasting evaluation measures are considered; the squared one-day ahead forecast error and its … standardized version. The mean squared forecast error is the widely accepted evaluation function for the realized volatility … standardized with its volatility. The statistical properties of the forecast errors point the standardized version as a more …

The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this … paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility …, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week effects, leverage effects and volatility level effects. Applying the model …

Many recent modelling advances in finance topics ranging from the pricing of volatility-based derivative products to … number of recent papers have addressed volatility predictability, some from the perspective of the usefulness of jumps in … forecasting volatility. Key papers in this area include Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), Corsi (2004), Andersen …

obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on … illustration provides an example of where an explanatory model outperforms realised volatility ex post. -- Financial variability … ; financial volatility ; forecasting ; explanatory modelling ; exchange rates …