This chapter introduces the reader to definitions and key properties of stochastic processes that are important in finance. The discussion starts from the description of Brownian motion that describes the idea of a continuous random walk and proceeds to Ito processes that incorporate both trend...

This paper develops and compares several methods of forecasting the S&P 500 Index using only data based on the closing value and trained over a six-decade data set. The methodologies include a C5.0 decision tree, a neural network, and a group of forecasts based on training set patterns of...

This paper reexamines the main arguments of whether or not monetary policy should respond to asset bubbles. The question of how the central bank should respond to an asset bubble can be reformulated in two ways. First, how does the central bank respond while an asset bubble is growing, and...

The Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF) methodology is a general and convenient framework for asset pricing. SDF encapsulates all the modeling uncertainties and its advantage is that we do not require the knowledge of investors' preferences. Suitable specification of SDF is, therefore, critical. It...

This paper links the bursting of the housing asset price bubble around 2007 in the U.S. to the instability that arose in financial markets with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, and both of these to the Great Recession and the unconventional monetary policy that followed....

The financial crisis of 2007-09 has led to a rethinking of the role of monetary and financial regulatory policy. It has also called into question the benefits of financial innovation and monetary policy that focuses solely on inflation and the output gap. This paper discusses financial...

In this chapter the authors seek to provide a general overview of the international markets for foreign exchange (FX) and FX derivatives as well as the theoretical relationships that tie these markets together with interest rates and central bank policies. The first section provides a brief...

In 1994 the Federal Reserve System moved to a more transparent reporting of monetary policy. In this paper we first discuss the various sources of uncertainty that play an essential role in the formulation and conduct of monetary policy and evaluate the degree of uncertainty faced by monetary...

In this paper we consider two new independent variables as inputs to the Taylor Rule. These are the equity and housing momentum variables and are introduced to investigate the potential usefulness of these two variables in guiding the Fed to lean against potential bubbles. Such effectiveness...