Showing 1 - 10 of 21,991
Using positive semidefinite supOU (superposition of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type) processes to describe the volatility, we … introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for financial data which is capable of modelling long range dependence … effects. The finiteness of moments and the second order structure of the volatility, the log returns, as well as their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156185
The Heston model stands out from the class of stochastic volatility (SV) models mainly for two reasons. Firstly, the … process for the volatility is nonnegative and mean-reverting, which is what we observe in the markets. Secondly, there exists …. -- Heston model ; vanilla option ; stochastic volatility ; Monte Carlo simulation ; Feller condition ; option pricing with FFT …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008663372
We develop a discrete-time affine stochastic volatility model with time-varying conditional skewness (SVS). Importantly …, we disentangle the dynamics of conditional volatility and conditional skewness in a coherent way. Our approach allows … autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH), and stochastic volatility with jumps (SVJ) models. Our results are not due to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014047692
floating exchange rate system in February 2001. In this paper, an asymmetric stochastic volatility model of the foreign … exchange return and its volatility. Particularly, an increase in the return at time t results in an increase in volatility at … decrease in volatility at time t + 1. The results imply that a central bank with a volatility smoothing policy would be biased …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014069852
We compare Bayesian and sample theory model specification criteria. For the Bayesian criteria we use the deviance information criterion and the cumulative density of the mean squared errors of forecast. For the sample theory criterion we use the conditional Kolmogorov test. We use Markov chain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009151894
realized volatility. The jump component has very different time series properties than the continuous component, and accounting … for this allows improved forecasting of future realized volatility. We investigate the potential forecasting role of … implied volatility backed out from option prices in the presence of these new separate realized volatility components. We show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003795292
autoregressive processes revealing time-varying stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities capture risk inherent to the term … additional determinants of future excess returns. Finally, we illustrate that the yield and volatility factors are closely con … ; yield curve risk ; stochastic volatility ; factor models ; macroeconomic fundamentals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003770770
This paper introduces a new modelling framework for energy spot prices based on Lévy semistationary processes. Lévy semistationary processes are special cases of the general class of ambit processes. We provide a detailed analysis of the probabilistic properties of such models and we show how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144201
We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns … using recent nonparametric statistical techniques to compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample … implied volatility. We find that implied volatility is an informationally efficient but biased forecast of future realized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003795291
This paper proposes a parsimonious threshold stochastic volatility (SV) model for financial asset returns. Instead of … imposing a threshold value on the dynamics of the latent volatility process of the SV model, we assume that the innovation of … time-varying volatility of returns, but also can accommodate the asymmetric shape of conditional distribution of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084224