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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015057216
The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the structure and dynamics of professionals' forecast of inflation … multi-period forecast and, thereby, the expected momentum of inflation. Using number survey-based data for the US and UK, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429166
This letter uses consumer survey data to estimate expectations-augmented Phillips curves with inflation expectations … disaggregated by socioeconomic and demographic groups. The inflation expectations of high-income, college-educated, male, and … working-age people play a larger role in inflation dynamics than do the expectations of other groups of consumers or of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989847
between inflation and real output have been developed. Since these new Phillips curve models are expressed in terms of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003958152
Our paper analyzes the effects of restrictions on capital mobility on the output-inflation trade-off. Using a … capital mobility should make the trade-off parameter smaller; that is, a given change in the inflation rate should be … output-inflation trade-off parameter are obtained from studies by Lucas (1973), Ball, Mankiw and Romer (1988) and others …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014060826
volatility turns out to be positive, and there is no important relationship between inflation and volatility. The main policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014062178
This chapter reviews and synthesizes our current understanding of the shocks that drive economic fluctuations. The chapter begins with an illustration of the problem of identifying macroeconomic shocks, followed by an overview of the many recent innovations for identifying shocks. It then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024291
This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on "frictional growth" describing the … able to work themselves out fully. In this context, monetary shocks have a gradual and delayed effect on inflation, and … these shocks also generate plausible impulse-responses for unemployment. Although our theory contains no money illusion, no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011414902
Analysis Network (PRISMA) for inflation dynamics and monetary policy, relying on calibrated models and direct empirical …. Empirical estimates of the Phillips curve during the low-inflation period confirm previous findings of a relatively flat but … setting, changes in trend inflation above 5-6% would have significant effects on the euro area Phillips curve. Similarly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014316106
number of inflation and real activity measures for the United States. We identify demand and supply factors by imposing … demand and supply over the past five decades. The most recent factor estimates indicate that the inflation surge since mid …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013460150