This paper extends the baseline Merton (1974) structural default model, which is intended for static debt spreads, to a setting with dynamic debt, where leverage can be ratcheted up as well as written down through pre-specified exogenous policies. We provide a different and novel solution...

In its document “Basel III: A global regulatory framework for more resilient banks and banking systems”, the Basel Committee set a CVA methodology for the trading book, at a time the determination of the credit spread for those entities interested in advanced models in their risk management...

This paper proposes a machine learning approach to estimate physical forward default intensities. Default probabilities are computed using artificial neural networks to estimate the intensities of the inhomogeneous Poisson processes governing default process. The major contribution to previous...

Credit pricing models largely fall into two classes - the structural models and the reduced form models. Attempts have been made to reconcile the two approaches by adjusting filtrations to restrict information, but they are technically complicated and tend to approach filtration modification in...

The Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy triggered the failure of the collateralized debt markets, which was a major contributor of the financial crisis in 2008. Such collateralized debt markets have both collateral price channel and counterparty (borrower and lender) channel of contagion. I propose a...

Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility...

Using a local adaptive Forward Intensities Approach (FIA) we investigate multiperiod corporate defaults and other delisting schemes. The proposed approach is fully datadriven and is based on local adaptive estimation and the selection of optimal estimation windows. Time-dependent model...

Interconnectedness between economic institution and sectors, already recognised as a trigger of the great financial crisis in 2008-2009, is assuming growing importance in financial systems. In this paper we study contagion effects between corporate sectors using financial network models, in...

This paper analyzes the impact of US firms’ equity risk on bank lending standards and on the macroeconomy for two groups: small and medium-large firms. The results indicate that a higher level of firm risk leads to a higher percentage of banks tightening their lending standards on commercial...