We build a novel term structure model for pricing synthetic euro area core inflation-linked swaps, a hypothetical swap … contract indexed to core inflation. Our approach relies on a term structure model of traded headline inflation-linked swap … rates, which we assume span core inflation. The model provides estimates of market-based expectations for core inflation, as …

. Adding inflation as a second variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and … one with negative expected inflation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset pricing model with learning, these dynamics …