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Revisions of consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables positively predict announcement day forecast errors, whereas stock market returns on forecast revision days negatively predict announcement day returns. A dynamic noisy rational expectations model with periodic macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012846330
Economic theory predicts that intertemporal decisions depend critically on expectations about future outcomes. Using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660381
We propose a method to measure people's subjective models of the macroeconomy. Using a sample of 2,200 households representative of the US population and a sample of more than 1,000 experts, we measure beliefs about how the unemployment rate and the inflation rate respond to four different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104048
We study people’s subjective models of the macroeconomy and shed light on their at-tentional foundations. To do so, we measure beliefs about the effects of macroeconomic shocks on unemployment and inflation, providing respondents with identical information about the parameters of the shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012663050
We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489702
We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013493004
Our objective was to conduct an experimental study of investors' reactions in terms of trading volume to the announcement of annual earnings. Shareholders consider annual net income as the most important figure in the announced results since it is the basis for determining profit for individual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156603
This paper leverages a novel survey among German senior government officials to investigate fiscal responses to monetary policy shocks. Using randomized vignette treatments, we present officials with scenarios of increased government interest costs and analyze their expected fiscal adjustments....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053809
The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a stylized macro model of Howitt (1992) to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378358
This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. The … theory is similar in spirit to, but distinct from, unpleasant monetarist arithmetic and the fiscal theory of the price level …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010202656