We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents’ expectations about the presidential election’s outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First, people disagreed strongly about the likely outcome of the...

We present the results of an experiment where a random subset of the participants in the Bundesbank's household panel receive personalized response scales, centered at each participant's point forecast. Personalized response scales offer two advantages over the standard scale which is centered...

We use novel survey data to study firms’ inventory contracts. We document facts about the usage of purchase and sale contracts. We find that firms purchase and sell inventory through three contractual arrangements: fixed price and quantity, fixed price only, and fixed quantity only. The former...

We use data from a large panel survey of UK firms to analyze the economic drivers of price setting since the start of the Covid pandemic. Inflation responded asymmetrically to movements in demand. This helps to explain why inflation did not fall much during the negative initial pandemic demand...

This paper analyses two types of models: 1. Those based on assumptions of monetary and financial market equilibrium disturbance in line with mainstream thinking that there is self-regulating market, the units would have rational expectations, and the crisis would be a temporary phenomenon caused...

Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...

A growing body of literature reports evidence of social interaction effects in survey expectations. In this note, we argue that evidence in favor of social interaction effects should be treated with caution, or could even be spurious. Utilizing a parsimonious stochastic model of expectation...

Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...

Using a novel data set that combines firms' qualitative survey-based sales forecasts with their quantitative balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors (those in the two tails of the distribution) are predictable and display auto-correlation. This result is...

This paper proposes a new double-question survey method that elicits information about how individuals' subjective belief valuations are compared and related to their price expectations. An individual respondent is presented with two sets of questions, one that asks about his/her belief...