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learning in the context of energy economics and presenting an exemplary application to electricity load data. For this, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012649104
Electricity price forecasting has become an area of increasing relevance in recent years. Despite the growing interest … proposes a new univariate hybrid model, trained, and tested on German electricity market data, based on the Seasonal Auto … and actual prices. The ability to predict the dynamics of the price of electricity on the spot market is an important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014464238
, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012544443
The predictive likelihood is of particular relevance in a Bayesian setting when the purpose is to rank models in a forecast comparison exercise. This paper discusses how the predictive likelihood can be estimated for any subset of the observable variables in linear Gaussian state-space models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412361
We consider forecast combination and, indirectly, model selection for VAR models when there is uncertainty about which variables to include in the model in addition to the forecast variables. The key difference from traditional Bayesian variable selection is that we also allow for uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014221496
(UVAR) andBayesian (BVAR) perspective. The package includes functionalities forthe speci cation, estimation and diagnosis of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309434
the major risk exposure for many investors in energy is the volatility of the electricity price, our motivation stems from …, one model may outperform its peers for one country's wholesale electricity price but not necessarily for other markets … volatility in electricity markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841582
We propose a new algorithm which allows easy estimation of Vector Autoregressions (VARs) featuring asymmetric priors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389735
UK, the Euro area and Japan, over an estimation period spanning from 1960 to 2012. We find that the relationship between … money growth and inflation appears to be nonlinear, as our estimation results identify multiple inflation regimes displaying …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425829
We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and complete density nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465155