This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' data. We consider both inflation and … are based on subjective probability distributions of survey respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation … inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on economic activity by decreasing output growth and increasing inflation and …

Uncertainty about the future path of inflation affects consumption, saving and investment decisions as well as wage … negotiations and price setting of firms. These decisions are based on inflation expectations which are a key determinant of … inflation in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. In this paper we therefore explicitly analyse the relationship between inflation …

inflation risk. We calculate the term structure of inflation uncertainty in New Keynesian models when the monetary authority … achieves equilibria with substantially lower long-run inflation risk. With either sticky prices or sticky wages, a price path … target reduces the variance of inflation by an order of magnitude more than it increases the variability of the output gap …

The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level … increase after a positive shock to core inflation uncertainty in a vector autoregression. Endogenous changes in household … inflation expectations help to understand the transmission mechanism through which an inflation uncertainty shock generates …

consumption via managing inflation expectations based on the Euler equation. Unconventional fiscal policy uses trivial … announcements of future consumer-price increases to boost inflation expectations and consumption expenditure on impact. Instead … inflation expectations and spending today. We find households' inflation expectations and readiness to spend react substantially …

We rely on the Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey to draw inference about firms' inflation … literature, we find evidence that the concept of "aggregate inflation" as measured through price statistics like the consumer … experiments (including randomized controlled trials) that show how researchers word questions to elicit inflation expectations and …

. Adding inflation as a second variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and … one with negative expected inflation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset pricing model with learning, these dynamics … alternative derivation for a measure of time-varying disaster risk suggested by Wachter (2013), implying that both the disaster …

We study asymmetric inflation effects of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area during …

We examine how the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affects inflation uncertainty in the … long-term. The unobservable inflation uncertainty is quantified by means of the slowly evolving long-term variance component … of inflation in the framework of the Spline-GARCH model (Engle and Rangel, 2008). For a cross-section of 13 developed …