We study how the excess market return depends on the time of the day using E-mini S&P 500 futures that are actively traded for almost 24 hours. Strikingly, four hours around European open account for the entire average market return. This period's returns are consistently positive in every year,...

The option implied volatility spread and skew predict stock returns. These variables also reflect the expected cost of borrowing stock to sell short. The stock borrowing fee implied from options prices predicts changes in quoted borrowing fees and stock returns; however, the volatility spread...

We train a machine learning method on a class of informed trades to develop a new measure of informed trading, the Informed Trading Intensity (``ITI''). ITI increases before earnings, M&A, and news announcements, and has implications for return reversal and asset pricing. ITI is effective...

This paper develops a new approach for variance trading. We show that the discretely-sampled realized variance can be robustly replicated under very general conditions, including when the price can jump. The replication strategy specifies the exact timing for rebalancing in the underlying. The...

A number of fundamental questions regarding the equity-index return dynamics are difficult to address due to the latent character of spot volatility. We exploit tick-by-tick option quotes to compute a novel "Corridor Implied Volatility,'' or CX, index which may serve as an observable proxy for...