Trading in options with a wide range of exercise prices and a single maturity allows a researcher to extract the market's risk neutral probability density (RND) over the underlying price at expiration. The RND contains investors' beliefs about the true probabilities blended with their risk...

An economic laboratory experiment is used to test the validity of Bessembinder and Lemmon's (2002) seminal risk premium theory. The theory predicts that forward premia in electricity markets are determined by the statistical properties of demand. The existing empirical evidence is mixed,...

This study reveals previously undocumented geography-related diversity in information acquisition. Exploiting the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s Electronic Data Gathering and Retrieval (EDGAR) server log, which tracks use by Internet Protocol (IP) address, we find that acquisition of...

Noise traders are often thought to be detrimental to market stability, increasing volatility and the risk of bubbles and crashes. The effect of noise traders on the learning and development of informed traders, however, has received little attention. We consider a computational model of a...

According to several extended behavioral theories, value profits should mirror momentum profits, and vary over time. We test these theories in the cross section of returns. Value returns depend on market states. From 1926 to 2018, following negative market return, the average so-called value...

Certificates are widely used as a signaling mechanism to mitigate adverse selection when information is asymmetric. To reduce information asymmetry between lenders and borrowers, Chinese peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms encourage borrowers to obtain various kinds of credit certificates. As...

Many researchers have conducted experiments to study different aspects of insider trading. Experimental laboratory asset markets allow the researcher to control parameters that are impossible to control or even measure in empirical data (e.g., fundamental value of the asset, quality and quantity...

Using survey forecasts, we find that systematic errors in expectations of long-term inflation and short-term nominal earnings growth are the main driver of prices and return puzzles for bonds and stocks. We demonstrate this by deriving and testing a single necessary and sufficient condition...

Findings from brain sciences show that the brain must first optimize on its own internal resources before seeking to optimize on the resources available in the external world. We show that this modest change is perspective, from resource-constrained humans to resource-constrained brains,...

This paper attempts to develop a theory of statistical equilibrium based on an entropy-constrained framework, that allow us to explain the distribution of stock returns overdi erent market trends. By making use of the Quantal Response Statistical Equilib-rium model (Scharfenaker and Foley,...