forecast errors and accruals, which we label “managers' accrual-related forecast bias.” We build on extensive research which … bias in their forecasts. We also find a substantial decline in managers' accrual-related forecast bias following the … importantly, we find that the effect of forecasting difficulty on managers' accrual-related forecast bias occurs only in the pre …

Variance after-effect is a perceptual bias in the dynamic assessment of variance. Experimental evidence shows that … construct a proxy of the adjustment factor using the sequence of dispersion of analysts earnings forecast. We provide empirical …

of forecast bias and (ii) investors' limited capability to adjust to this bias. We assume that the presence of a bias is … skills, all the more so the larger the uncertainty about the forecast bias … present a model in which forecast accuracy and timing are affected by information uncertainty stemming from (i) the presence …

Using a value-weighted rather than an equally weighted regression, Easton and Sommers (2007) show that the upward bias … that the impact of any bias attributable to analysts' forecasts can be reduced to a statistically insignificant 0 ….4%. Second, we show that our estimates of the implied equity risk premium after removing the effect of this bias are between 3 …

By decomposing analysts' forecast errors into common and idiosyncratic components, we develop a simple model aimed at … explaining the relationship between forecast uncertainty and analyst dispersion. Under this framework, we propose a new measure … of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast errors …

earnings depends on the assumption that managers can accurately assess future earnings prospects. In this regard, we posit that … the predictive ability of dividends can vary with managers’ forecasting ability. Analyzing a large sample of Japanese …-forecasting ability managers. Our findings support the signaling theory of dividend changes and indicate that management forecasting …