We develop a sovereign default model with debt renegotiation in which interest-rate shocks affect default incentives through two mechanisms. The first is the standard mechanism through which higher rates tighten the budget constraint. The second rests on how risk-free rates affect lenders'...

Evidence suggests that potential growth and the neutral rate co-move in advanced economies. In contrast, this co-movement is not observed in emerging economies. We argue that capital flows may explain this behavior. We focus on Mexico, a benchmark emerging economy, and find that capital inflows...