distribution by asking whether ethanol returns can be used to forecast different parts of field crops returns distribution, or vice … Squares. Forecast evaluation relies on quantile-weighed scoring rules, which identify regions of the distribution of interest … by using field crops returns. On the contrary, there is no evidence that ethanol can be used to forecast any region of …

specifications involving product spreads and compare these models to the no-change forecast of the real price of oil. We show that …

no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

The forecast performance of the empirical ESTAR model of Taylor, Peel and Sarno (2001) is examined for 4 bilateral real … constructed, considering forecast horizons of 1 to 22 steps head. The study finds that no forecast gains over a simple AR(1 …) specification exist at any of the forecast horizons that are considered, regardless of whether point or density forecasts are …