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This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060 …. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and … series are forecast by bootstrapping. This allows fully integrated simulations and the possibility to illustrate the …
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This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …
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Many countries have implemented social programmes providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programmes often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the strains already existing on public budgets,...
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