Credible Granger-causality analysis appears to require post-sample inference, as it is well-known that in-sample fit can be a poor guide to actual forecasting effectiveness. However, post-sample model testing requires an often-consequential a priori partitioning of the data into an "in-sample"...

The existing literature has explained the causality flow from the exchange rates toward the stock market without explaining the role of the economic crisis in effecting this nexus. This study examines the role of the financial crisis in affecting the nonlinear causality flowing from the exchange...