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forecasts ; directional forecast value ; forecast evaluation ; economic forecast value ; mean squared forecast error ; mean … directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion. -- Directional …
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Motivated by the question of how one should evaluate professional election forecasters, we study a novel dynamic mechanism design problem without transfers. A principal who wishes to hire only high-quality forecasters is faced with an agent of unknown quality. The agent privately observes...
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This book discusses the art and science of economic decision making. It combines logical thinking with analytics, economics, and finance to draw decision insights for the upstream petroleum projects. The book offers useful analysis skills for practitioners in industry, including analysts,...
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