biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly … estimating the impulse response function of forecast errors. The framework does not require precise knowledge of the true data …

relationship between a change in trend growth rates and forecast bias, as suggested in the literature, breaks down when only …-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for …