the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series … is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where a random walk forecast acts as benchmark. It is found that for … approaches do not outperform the random walk, or a somewhat more sophisticated time series model, on a 3 month forecast horizon …