The purpose of the paper is two-fold: (i) to construct and analyze a novel endogenous growth model, in which unbounded growth is possible without the need to assume increasing returns to scale, and (ii) to use the model to estimate the long-run (or dynamic) costs of recessions. In our model,...

This paper systematically investigates the sources of differential out-of-sample predictive accuracy of heuristic frameworks based on internet search frequencies and a large set of econometric models. The volume of internet searches helps gauge the degree of investors' time-varying interest in...

This paper justifies the relevance of capital controls on the basis of markets' incompleteness, examines the pros and cons of restrictions on capital mobility, surveys the literature's recent attempts to assess the effectiveness of capital controls, and delineates the focal points of debate...

In an attempt to advance our understanding of the potential long-run benefits of macroeconomic stabilization policies, the paper studies the long-term effects of economic slowdowns. We construct a discrete-time endogenous growth model, in which a recession, defined as a reduction in resource...