In this paper we model the dynamics of 100 years long monthly price series of eight non-ferrous and precious metals. Applying the state space framework we impose and identify two common factors related to non-ferrous and precious metals, respectively, which exhibit quite distinct autoregressive...

The objective of this paper is to examine causality and feedback relationships between primary commodity prices and US inflation. To this end, the bivariate noisy Mackey-Glass process recently developed by Kyrtsou and Labys (2006) has been applied to assess this relationship. Results obtained...

Some limit properties for information based model selection criteria are given in the context of unit root evaluation and various assumptions about initial conditions. Allowing for a nonparametric short memory component, standard information criteria are shown to be weakly consistent for a unit...