The impact of fiscal stimulus depends not only on short-term tax and spending policies, but also on expectations about offsetting measures in the future. This paper analyzes the effects of an increase in government spending under a plausible debt-stabilizing policy that links current stimulus to...

This paper considers the problem of modeling migraine severity assessments and their dependence on weather and time characteristics. Since ordinal severity measurements arise from a single patient, dependencies among the measurements have to be accounted for. For this the autoregressive ordinal...

In this paper we introduce two stochastic volatility models where the response variable takes on only finite many ordered values. Corresponding time series occur in high-frequency finance when the stocks are traded on a coarse grid. For parameter estimation we develop an efficient Grouped Move...