The paper presents the welfare cost of inflation in a banking time economy that models exchange credit through a bank … welfare cost of a 10% inflation rate instead of zero, for comparison to other estimates, as well as the cost of a 2% inflation … rate instead of a zero inflation rate. The zero rate is specified as the US inflation rate target in the 1978 Employment …

for Treasuries, inflation-protected securities, inflation derivatives, and oil future prices based on no … information from inflation options can often produce more accurate inflation forecasts than those based on the Survey of … Professional Forecasters. Second, incorporating oil futures tends to improve short-term inflation and longer-term nominal yield …

small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short … evaluation of predictive accuracy, we subject all structures to a mutual validation using parametric bootstrapping. Ultimately …

This paper examines three empirical measures of the ex ante 10-year real interest rate: inflation-indexed government … bond yields and two Fisher-hypothesis proxies based on survey inflation expectations and a shifting endpoint econometric …

If monetary policy succeeds in keeping average inflation very low, nominal interest rates may occasionally be … distortions from the zero bound. If policy imparts persistence into the inflation rate, the real implications of the zero bound …

disturbances to the money market, the variance of output is shown to be an increasing function of the trend inflation rate. When … they result from disturbances to the goods market, the variance of output is a decreasing function of the trend inflation … rate. When both disturbances are significant, there exists, in general, a critical non-zero trend inflation rate that …

This paper proposes that there is a dynamic relationship between interest and inflation rates that are jointly … inflation and interest rates wherein causality runs from inflation to interest rates. By contrast, the Wicksell process is the … negative relationship between the two rates with causality from interest to inflation rates. While Fisher and Wicksell theories …

for Treasuries, inflation-protected securities, inflation derivatives, and oil future prices based on no … information from inflation options can often produce more accurate inflation forecasts than those based on the Survey of … Professional Forecasters. Second, incorporating oil futures tends to improve short-term inflation and longer-term nominal yield …

interest rates lead to changes to inflation in the opposite direction. I conclude that this is how credit crunches and monetary … tightening reduce inflation. I simulate different monetary policy through a variable inflation target. Wild swings in the target … kill the persistence in inflation, which may explain the absence of persistence under the Gold Standard. A stable target …