flows. Analysing contagion and, more important, being able to make an on-coming prediction successfully helps economic …The topic of contagion has gained importance in the last few decades, earning its place amongst the most debated topics … in international economics. Contagion is a phenomenon where market disturbances in crisis times are observed to spread …

completely new sequential importance sampling estimator of the desired tail probability. Numerical experiments suggest that the … sequential importance sampling estimator can be significantly more efficient than its competitor. …