In this paper, the authors investigate the statistical properties of some cryptocurrencies by using three layers of analysis: alpha-stable distributions, Metcalfe’s law and the bubble behaviour through the LPPL modelling. The results show, in the medium to long-run, the validity of Metcalfe's...

An examination of Swedish manufacturing data on real output and qualitative business tendency survey (BTS) responses from 1968 through 1998 reveals that survey-based attitude data typically improve the fit of simple autoprojective models of manufacturing output growth. It also turns out that...

The recent boom in house prices in many countries during the Covid-19 pandemic and the possibility of household financial distress are of concern among some central banks. We revisit the empirical modelling of house prices and household debt with a policy-oriented perspective using Norwegian...

This paper explores the specification and use of uncertainty measures in constructions of policy forecasts of money market activity. The concept of a policy forecast implies efforts not only to explicitly condition forecasts on assumptions regarding short-run operating procedures but also to...

The paper presents a method for modeling and controlling time series with identity structures. The approach is presented in the context of monetary targeting where the monetary identity (e.g. reserve money equals net foreign assets plus domestic credit) is modeled using a constrained state space...

We adopt an unobserved components time series model to extract financial cycles for the United States and the five largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have medium-term cycles which share a few common statistical...

The paper is aimed at quantifying empirically the monetary transmission mechanism for Argentine, and at analyzing the responses of output, inflation, and money market mutual funds (MMMF) to a positive monetary shock. The idea of incorporating MMMF into the system is to understand how economic...

This paper compares the performance of a four methods of seasonal adjustment for monthly monetary aggregates. The methods compared are 1. GLAS - the method currently employed by the Bank. 2. STL - a recently developed flexible non-parametric adjustment method. 3. X-11 ARIMA (a slightly modified...

We review the past 25 years of time series research that has been published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period, over one third of all papers_new published in these...

The link between foreign aid and economic growth remains a controversial issue in the literature, and a large share of the disagreement could be explained by differences in the data employed. Using GDP data from three different versions of the Penn World Table and the World Development...