This paper explores the sensitivity of plug-in based subset tests to instrument exclusion in linear IV regression. Recently, identification-robust statistics based on plug-in principle have been developed for testing hypotheses specified on subsets of the structural parameters. However, their...

A common stochastic restriction in econometric models separable in the latent variables is the assumption of stochastic independence between the unobserved and observed exogenous variables. Both simple and composite tests of this assumption are derived from properties of independence empirical...

This paper proposes a new test of the null hypothesis that a generalized method of moments model is identified. The test can detect local or global underidentification, and underidentification in some or all directions. The idea of the test is to compare the volume of two confidence sets - one...

Hedge Fund returns are often highly serially correlated mainly due to illiquidity exposures given that investments in such securities tend to be inactively traded and associated market prices are not always readily available. Following that, observed returns of such alternative investments tend...

Traditional portfolio optimization models specify placement of capital as rather irrevocably and fully at risk through investment horizon(s) or continuously. Under this constraint, asset class allocation typically serves as primary mode of diversification, pursuing risk moderation by seeking to...

Hedging of illiquid financial instruments is carried out with liquid instruments that, as a rule, have simpler payoff functions. For example, hedging of Asian or long-dated put options is carried out with vanilla puts, hedging of Bermuda swaptions is done with vanilla swaptions, etc. This kind...

An explication of the key ideas behind the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach. The CVAR approach is related to Haavelmo's famous quot;Probability Approach in Econometricsquot; (1944). It insists on careful stochastic specification as a necessary groundwork for econometric inference and...

In finance, decision making and choice requires that we assume that asset prices tend to trend. This assumption also logically enables us to construct exits to limit losses and protect capital. But investors have good reason to be uneasy regarding the potential for significant loss when using a...

A standard model-based trend-cycle decomposition of Italian GDP yields a likelihood function that is relatively flat and has two local maxima. A Bayesian estimation of the model identifies output gap and trend components that match the features of the Italian business cycle well. In a bivariate...

This article presents a new model for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by multiple credit risks of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most...