The complexity of the world oil market has increased dramatically in recent years and new approaches are needed to understand, model, and forecast oil prices today. Many models have been explored and most of the papers and modeling projects referenced in this paper identify their own...

This paper proposes a predictive maintenance policy using modified failure mode effect and criticality analysis (Mod-FMECA) technique. FMECA is used to identify failure modes, reasons, effects and criticality of the system (machine/plant) but in Mod-FMECA in addition to the analysis carried for...

In this note we sketch a dynamic framework within which the discussion on the macroeconomic effects of climate change take place. The problem setting is characterized by scientific uncertainties about the development of climate, potential large economic losses and human beings having their...

In this note, a class of nonlinear dynamic models under rational expectations is studied. A particular solution is found using a model reference adaptive technique via an extended Kalman filtering algorithm, for which initial conditions knowledge only is required. -- Nonlinear dynamic systems ;...

In this article, we present the analytical approximation of zero-coupon bonds and swaption prices for general short rate models. The approximation is based on regular and singular expansions with respect to the small volatility and contains a low-dimensional integration. The model in hand...

In this article we present an efficient optimization for calculating the exposure and CVA for large portfolios of vanilla swaps. It is based on a "thin-out" procedure applied to fixed payment streams, which reduces a very frequent stream of payments to a much less frequent one. The procedure...

The modeling of tenor basis spreads is of central importance to CVA for tenor basis swaps. Such spreads are typically positive, suggesting a natural lower bound. We introduce a multi- curve Cheyette-style model with lower bounds enforced through level dependence in spread volatilities. The model...

This article describes a machine learning based approach applied to acquiring empirical forecasting models. The approach makes use of the LAGRAMGE equation discovery tool to define a potentially very wide range of equations to be considered for the model. Importantly, the equations can vary in...

The LIBOR Market Model (LMM or BGM) has become one of the most popular models for pricing interest rate products. It is commonly believed that Monte-Carlo simulation is the only viable method available for the LIBOR Market Model. In this article, however, we propose a lattice (or tree) approach...

A model/hedging performance is relatively poorly covered in the literature. This is particularly valid for general portfolios including both vanilla and exotic instruments. Practitioners generally use so called \pnl explain which measures whether portfolio price movements can be explained by...