The traditional necessary condition for futures market inefficiency is the existence of alternative forecasting methods that produce mean squared forecast errors smaller than the futures market. Here, a more exacting requirement for futures market efficiency is proposed - forecast encompassing....

Annual rebalancing of the S&P GSCI index provides a novel and strong identification to estimate the shape of supply curves for commodity futures contracts. Using the 24 commodities included in the S&P GSCI for 2004–2017, we show that cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) reach a peak of 59 basis...

The statistical forecasting efficiency of new crop corn and soybean futures is the topic of frequent academic inquiry. However, few studies address the usefulness of these forecasts to economic agents? decision making. Each year Central Illinois producers are faced with the decision to plant...

Annual rebalancing of the S&P GSCI provides a novel identification of the impact of predictable order flows from index investors in commodity futures markets. Using the 24 commodities included in the S&P GSCI for 2004–2019, we show that cumulative abnormal returns to a long-short strategy...

"This book documents a curated selection of papers on the impact of index investment on commodity futures prices. The 10 papers follow the evolving speculation debate with new author forewords highlighting the contribution and impact. Essential reading for scholars and researchers interested in...