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A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic Analysis
Moreau, Flavien; Lleras-Muney, Adriana - 2021
We propose a dynamic production function of population health and mortality from birth onwards. Our parsimonious model … provides an excellent fit for the mortality and survival curves for both primate and human populations since 1816. The model … mortality gradients across socio-economic statuses, (ii) non-monotonic dynamic effects of in-utero shocks, (iii) persistent or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243051
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Altruism, Macroeconomic Aggregates and the Cyclical Behavior of Fertility : Theory and Evidence from U.S. Data
Abo-Zaid, Salem M. - 2015
national debt, government budget deficits and taxes, on fertility decisions over the business cycle. A rise in the debt …-GDP ratio, government spending-GDP ratio and the deficit-GDP ratio reduces fertility. On the other hand, a fall in the tax … revenues-GDP ratio is associated with lower fertility rates. These results hold even after controlling for other potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019995
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Increasing Longevity and Social Security Reforms
Andersen, Torben M. - 2021
Increasing longevity causes an upward trend in the dependency ratio in many countries. This raises concerns about the financial sustainability of social security schemes, and reform initiatives and proposals abound. It is shown that a fundamental policy choice inevitably arises since a given...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317447
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Social Security and Longevity
Andersen, Torben M. - 2021
Many countries face the problem of how to reform social security systems to cope with increasing life expectancy. This raises questions concerning both distribution and risk sharing across generations. These issues are addressed within an OLG model with stochastic life expectancy across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318146
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Fertility and Social Security
Boldrin, Michele - 2008
fertility. What type of model is consistent with this finding? We explore this question using two models of fertility: one by …-age transfers. The effect of increases in government provided pensions on fertility in the Barro and Becker model is very small …, whereas the effect on fertility in the Boldrin and Jones model is sizeable and accounts for between 55 and 65% of the observed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770842
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Stochastic population analysis : a functional data approach
Fang, Lei; Härdle, Wolfgang - 2015
Based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the benchmark in population forecasting, a variety of extensions and modifications are proposed in this paper. We investigate one of the extensions, the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) method and apply it to Asian demographic data sets: China, Japan and Taiwan. It combines...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477583
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A Stochastic Model of Mortality, Fertility and Human Capital Investment
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem - 2002
This paper examines the relationship between fertility and human capital investment and its implications for economic … growth, focusing on the effects of declining mortality. Unlike the existing literature, this paper stresses the role of … precautionary demand for children. As the mortality rate and thus uncertainty falls, this demand decreases. Furthermore, lower …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014117227
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A Stochastic Model of Mortality, Fertility and Human Capital Investment
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem - 2002
This paper examines the relationship between fertility and human capital investment and its implications for economic … growth, focusing on the effects of declining mortality. Unlike the existing literature, this paper stresses the role of … precautionary demand for children. As the mortality rate and thus uncertainty falls, this demand decreases. Furthermore, lower …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014118502
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Tax Competition in an Aging Society
Bernstein, David P. - 2012
This paper considers the impact of population aging on tax competition among states. The analysis presented here …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012754841
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The Out-of-Sample Performance of Stochastic Methods in Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality Rates
Meseguer, Javier - 2008
that are fairly close to one another. Typically, the median projections of mortality moderately overpredict the actual …This paper evaluates the out-of-sample performance of two stochastic models used to forecast age specific mortality … are used to compare observed ex-post mortality rates to the forecasts generated by the models. Several functions of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012723419