Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and … discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence …

more accurate than econometric models that include levels variables, ECMs. For example, dVAR forecasts are insulated from …

unconventional policies that aim to increase households' spending directly through managing their expectations. We first show … theoretically and empirically that higher in ation expectations increase households' consumption. We then design a difference … demand via managing expectations. Whereas unconventional fiscal policy increases households' expectations and spending …

We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on … inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the … best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …

Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on … particular violation of the Full Information Rational Expectations hypothesis that requires explanation. In contrast, minor … quantify qualitative survey data on firm forecasts. It is generally applicable when quantitative information, e.g. from balance …

-level forecasts or household expectations. As an application, we employ a panel of Greek manufacturing firms and quantify firms …We develop a novel methodology to quantify forecasts based on qualitative survey data. The methodology is generally …

to time-varying macroeconomic dynamics. To do so, we build a New Keynesian model with long-horizon expectations and … utility and firms maximise the discounted flow of future profits), their current decisions are influenced by expectations of … expectations equilibrium of these models. We assume that agents have access to a set of alternative predictors that can be used to …

The necessity of improving the forecasts accuracy grew in the context of ac- tual economic crisis, but few researchers … inflation rate forecasts on the horizon 2010 - 2012, we proved that the one-step-ahead forecasts based on updated AR(2) models … constructing the forecasts, by using the limits of the bias- corrected-accelerated bootstrap intervals for the initial data series …

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to enormous data movements that strongly affect parameters and forecasts from standard … transitory and persistent changes in volatility. The resulting density forecasts are much less sensitive to outliers in the data …

This paper examines the extent to which errors in economic forecasts are driven by initial assumptions that prove to be … incorrect ex post. Therefore, we construct a new data set comprising an unbalanced panel of annual forecasts from different … recommendations based on economic forecasts. …