The assessment of external positions and exchange rates is a key mandate of the IMF. This paperpresents the updated External Balance Assessment (EBA) framework-a key input in the conduct ofmultilaterally-consistent external sector assessments of 49 advanced and emerging marketeconomies-following...

Does an improvement in growth prospects lead to a fall in the trade balance? The relevance of this question stems from the tendency for countercyclical fluctuations in the trade balance stressed by both the academic literature and policymakers. However, we do not find that improved growth...

Does an improvement in growth prospects lead to a fall in the trade balance? The relevance of this question stems from the tendency for countercyclical fluctuations in the trade balance stressed by both the academic literature and policymakers. However, we do not find that improved growth...

Solow residuals are used as proxies for productivity shocks in many empirical studies. Considering the shortcomings of this approach this paper proposes the common trends approach as an alternative. The common trends econometric technique is utilized here in an attempt to identify and analyze...

The paper presents the new data collection and the estimation methodology for the external statistics, the results of the comparison between the old and the new data in the overlapping period and the evolution of the Italian balance of payments and international investment position since the...

This paper examines the persistent deterioration in the international external position of the U.S. over the past 60 years. I develop a model without Ponzi schemes and arbitrage opportunities that accounts for both the secular rise and the cyclical variations in the U.S. international debt...

This paper derives the balance of payments-constrained growth (BPCG) model as a special case of a three good framework that incorporates exportables, importables, and non-tradables. The conditions under which the canonical form of the BPCG rate can be derived are made explicit and the...

Uncertainty about the export earnings accruing to a country (sometimes referred to as export instability) is an important source of macroeconomic uncertainty in many developing countries. Theory predicts that countries should react to increases in this form of uncertainty by increasing their...

Governments have a number of policy tools that can be used to address pressure on the balance of payments. When market pressure leads to an unsustainable decline in the relative value of the domestic currency, authorities can: (1) sell reserves, (2) raise interest rates, (3) impose capital...

Differences in growth, productivity and inflation levels are going to be a prominent feature of the future of EMU, as the convergence process is still ongoing in the new Member States. This convergence process can be described by the Balassa-Samuelson proposition, which states that faster growth...