The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation equation of the Area Wide model (AWM) - cf. Fagan, Henry...

We propose a general class of Markov-switching-ARFIMA processes in order to combine strands of long memory and Markov-switching literature. Although the coverage of this class of models is broad, we show that these models can be easily estimated with the DLV algorithm proposed. This algorithm...

The volatility implied by observed market prices as a function of the strike and time to maturity form an Implied Volatility Surface (IVS). Practical applications require reducing the dimension and characterize its dynamics through a small number of factors. Such dimension reduction is...

Empirical studies have shown that a large number of financial asset returns exhibit fat tails and are often characterized by volatility clustering and asymmetry. Also revealed as a stylized fact is Long memory or long range dependence in market volatility, with significant impact on pricing and...

According to housing investment models, house prices and replacement cost should have an equilibrating relationship. Previous empirical work - mainly based on aggregate-level data - has found only little evidence of such a relationship. By using a unique data set, covering transactions of...

In recent years support vector regression (SVR), a novel neural network (NN) technique, has been successfully used for financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH method is proposed and is compared with a moving...

In this paper we adopt a principal components analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of the term structure and employ autoregressive models (AR) to forecast principal components which, in turn, are used to forecast swap rates. Arguing in favor of structural variation, we propose data...

By using a unique data set of single-family house transactions, we examine the accuracy of the cost and sales comparison approach over different forecast horizons. We find that sales comparison values provide better long-term forecasts than cost values if the economic loss function is symmetric....

A covariance-stationary vector of variables has a Wold representation whose coefficients can be semiparametrically estimated by local projections (Jordà, 2005). Substituting the Wold representations for variables in model expressions generates restrictions that can be used by the method of...

In this article we derive conditions which ensure the non-negativity of the conditional variance in the Hyperbolic GARCH(p; d; q) (HYGARCH) model of Davidson (2004). The conditions are necessary and sufficient for p < 2 and sufficient for p > 2 and emerge as natural extensions of the inequality constraints derived in...</2>