In this paper we investigate the twofold effect of demographics on international factor flows in a model with endogenous policy constraints on both foreign direct investment and migration. Factor price differences between industrialized and developing countries create economic incentives for...

Die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen rohstoffreicher Länder fallen bisweilen sehr unterschiedlich aus. Folgt man der wissenschaftlichen Literatur, steht den segensreichen Rohstofferträgen eine Reihe unerwünschter Nebenwirkungen gegenüber. So kann es im Zuge von Rohstoffexporten zu einer...

It is often argued that capital should flow from aging industrialized economies to countries with fast-growing populations. However, institutional failures and the risk of expropriation substantially reduce developing economies' attractiveness for foreign investors. We analyze the influence of a...

Preventive policy measures such as bailouts often pass parliament very narrowly. We present a model of asymmetric information between politicians and voters which rationalizes this narrow parliamentary outcome. A successful preventive policy impedes the verification of its own necessity. When...

Using factor models, it has recently been shown that a pre-selection of indicators improves GDP forecasts in the very short-term. The aim of this paper is to adopt this research to the methodology of bridge models in combination with pooling approaches. Focusing on Euro Area GDP between 2005 and...

In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences...