This paper highlights the factors that limit or increase cyclical divergence in the euro area and reviews one policy area that is important in fostering a speedy adjustment to shocks: the transmission of monetary policy via the housing market. A high interest rate sensitivity of housing markets...

We characterize the dispersion of firm-level productivity and demand shocks over the business cycle using Swedish microdata including prices and analyse the consequences for firms and the aggregate economy. Demand dispersion increases by more than productivity dispersion in recessions....

Some financial disruptions that started in California, U.S., in March 2023, resulting in the closure of several medium-size U.S. banks, shed new light on the role of liquidity in business cycle dynamics. In the normal path of the business cycle, liquidity and output mutually interact. Small...

This paper presents a dynamic model of complex system dynamics vulnerable to loss of resilience, cycles, and contractions. We use a limit cycle model built upon Koçkesen & Semmler (2017) to evaluate Brunnermeirs’s theory of Resilience in the light of complex system dynamics and discuss the...

There is a growing body of literature examining the effectiveness of the monetary policy on the macroeconomy in different contexts for developed and developing countries. However, lately, especially after the GFC, the focus of research shifted to examine the role of uncertainty in economic...

We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...

This study analyzes how competition affects price stickiness at the micro level. On the theoretical side, I develop what I call a micro Phillips curve, i.e. a product-specific relation between inflation and economic activity conditional on inflation expectations. I find two opposing effects of...

The research work presented below addresses the possible concern of central bank independence through the development and application of econometric models. The complexity of the modelling has allowed a step further in corroborating that financial independence is not only linked to the...

We study the optimal monetary policy problem in a New Keynesian economy with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate, when the steady state natural rate (r*) becomes permanently negative. We show that the optimal policy aims to approach gradually a new steady state with positive...

The "histogram method" (Young, 2010), while the standard approach for analyzing distributional dynamics in heterogeneous agent models, is linear in optimal policies. We introduce a novel method that captures nonlinearities of distributional dynamics. This method solves the distributional...