This book is written for those seeking a decision theory appropriate for use in serious choices such as insurance. It employs stages of knowledge ahead to track satisfactions and dissatisfactions. From experimental and questionnaire data, people take into account such stages of knowledge ahead...

This paper extends the expected utility models of decision making under risk and under uncertainty to include incomplete beliefs and tastes. The main results are two axiomatizations of the multi-prior expected multi-utility representations of preference relation under uncertainty, thereby...

Optimism bias is inconsistent with the independence of decision weights and payoffs found in models of choice under risk, such as expected utility theory and prospect theory. Hence, to explain the evidence suggesting that agents are optimistically biased, we propose an alternative model of risky...