Trading strategies are valued using non-linear conditional expectations with respect to non-additive probabilities in a discrete time Markovian context. Non-additive probabilities attain conservatism by exaggerating upwards tail loss events and exaggerating downwards tail gain events. Steady...

We construct a dynamical credit model that can be calibrated exactly to CDS quotes. Modelling the default time as the first-passage time of a credit index process to the level zero, we show that the parameters of this credit index process can be chosen such that the risk-neutral (implied)...

In this paper we explore a novel way to combine the dynamic notion of time-consistency with the static notion of quantile-based coherent risk-measure or spectral risk measure, of which Expected Shortfall is a prime example. We introduce a class of dynamic risk measures in terms of a certain...