This paper surveys and motivates the reasons for incorporating explicit long run of supply features into applied estimated macro economic models. It defines some basic stability conditions for such models and illustrates elements of long run considerations with reference to a small (22 equation)...

We examine an interesting puzzle in monetary economics between what monetary authorities claim (namely to be forward-looking and pre-emptive) and the poor stabilization properties routinely reported for forecast-based rules. Our resolution is that central banks should be viewed as following...

Despite being critical parameters in many economic fields, the received wisdom, in theoretical and empirical literatures, states that joint identification of the elasticity of capital-labor substitution and technical bias is infeasible. This paper challenges that pessimistic interpretation....

We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...

The objectives of this paper are : first, to quantify the stabilization welfare gains from commitment; second, to examine how commitment to an optimal rule can be sustained as an equilibrium and third, to find a simple interest rate rule that closely approximates the optimal commitment one. We...

This paper re-examines the validity of the Phillips-Curve framework using US data. We make three main innovations. First, we introduce into the well-known Calvo price staggering framework, a regime-dependent price-changing signal. This means that a state-dependent linearization is no longer...