South Asian (SA) countries' growth-dynamics since 1951 is examined and compared using the annual catch-up index. Their growth is more volatile than 89 countries' sample studied earlier. It does not experience a stable phase, is sharply divergent, and the country that grows fastest for two...

We show that bond risk-premia rise with uncertainty about expected inflation and fall with uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of return predictability using these two uncertainty measures is similar to that by multiple yields. Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a...

This paper examines the ability of bond and stock markets to predict subsequent GDP growth over a range of horizons for twelve international countries. The results, using linear, probit, time- and regime-varying in-sample regressions and out-of-sample forecasting, confirm the view that both...