find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … useful information. By contrast, incorporating expectations derived from financial market prices or those of firms and …

pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …

variables in the model, rather than just on future paths as it is usually done in the conditional forecasting literature. The … forecasting densities of a BVAR and a DSGE model on information about the marginal densities of future oil prices. The results …-inflation over the considered forecasting horizon. Finally, a real-time forecasting exercise yields that introducing market …

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and … discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence …

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial crosssectional heterogeneity …. This chapter focuses on heterogeneity in the expectations among professional forecasters, first presenting stylized facts … and discussing theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations, before providing an overview of the empirical …

best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …

agreed. In short, forecasting inflation is of foremost importance to households, businesses, and policymakers. In 2016, the …

MDS approach. In a forecasting exercise the MDS model compares favorably to the Bernoulli model for one quarter and one … year ahead inflation. In addition, it turns out that the performance of MDS model forecasting is competitive in comparison … with other models found to be useful in the inflation forecasting literature. …