We apply classical econometric method to characterize the dynamic behavior of the quarter-on-quarter inflation over the period 1997q1-2010q1. In particular, we estimate univariate autoregressive (AR) models for the aggregate consumer price inflation series and as well as for the consumer price...

This paper aims to assess the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the ESI within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic...

This paper identifies the natural interest rate for the Macedonian economy using quarterly data for 2001Q4-2019Q3. To this end, the estimation is made by using different types of models, such as the Holston, Laubach, and Williams model and the full-fledged country-specific structural MAKPAM...