This paper examines point and density forecasts from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We derive individual uncertainty measures along with individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. We also explore the relationship between uncertainty and...

We consider the application of a control variate technique for Deep Learning. In analogy to applications for Monte Carlo simulation or Fourier integration methods, this technique improves the quality of deep learning applied to option pricing problems. Many well known approximation methods are...

In this paper I describe and apply the methods of Symbolic Time Series Analysis (STSA) to an experimental framework. The idea behind Symbolic Time Series Analysis is simple: the values of a given time series data are transformed into a finite set of symbols obtaining a finite string. Then, we...

For over 40 years theorists have sought the effects of tax audits on voluntary compliance rates by studying individual taxpayer motivations. Yet no single theory has produced a taxpayer incentive model that both comports with experience and explains the effects of audits on compliance. This...

Hedging of illiquid financial instruments is carried out with liquid instruments that, as a rule, have simpler payoff functions. For example, hedging of Asian or long-dated put options is carried out with vanilla puts, hedging of Bermuda swaptions is done with vanilla swaptions, etc. This kind...

For well over a century, legislators, courts, lawyers, and scholars have spent significant time and energy debating the optimal duration of copyright protection. While there is general consensus that copyright's term is of legal and economic significance, arguments both for and against a lengthy...

A population’s weight conditioned on height reflects its current net nutrition and demonstrates health variation during economic development. This study builds on the use of weight as a measure for current net nutrition and uses a difference-in-decompositions technique to illustrate how black...

The authors apply a Hidden Markov Model to identify regimes of shifting inflation and then employ an attribution technique based on the Mahalanobis distance to identify the economic variables that determine the trajectory of inflation. Their analysis enables policymakers to focus on the most...

In recent years, the government, of African Countries has assumed major responsibilities for economic reforms and growth. In attempting to describe their economies, economists (policymakers) in many African Countries have applied certain models that are by now widely known: Linear programming...