In this paper, using estimating function approach, a new optimal volatility estimator is introduced, and, based on the recursive form of the estimator, a data-driven generalized EWMA model for VaR forecast is proposed. An appropriate data-driven model for volatility is identified by the...

This paper is concerned with filtering for various types of time series models including the class of generalized ARCH models and stochastic volatility models. We extend the results of Thavaneswaran and Abraham (1988) for some time series models using martingale estimating functions. Nonlinear...

This e-book contains papers from the 2006 Statistical Modelling in Finance conference. Using the historical hurricane forecasts of Dr. William M. Gray, the editorial identifies the problem of using "black-box" methods in catastrophe forecasting, and emphasises the value of independent peer review