A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of...

This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only...

This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only...

Theoretical models on the selling process in the housing market are scarce. Taylor (1999) specifies a model where time-on-the-market gives a quality signal of the house to potential buyers if inspection outcomes of the house are not public. We specify a duration model with competing risks, where...

A dramatic decline in the maximum loan amount eligible for FHA mortgage insurance in the Salt Lake City metropolitan statistical area between 2013 and 2014 provides a natural experiment in the impact of borrowing constraints on housing decisions. Using a differences-in-differences design within...

The future of American homeownership is being pushed in contradictory directions by demographic changes. The aging of the Baby Boomers would support higher levels of homeownership, but the increasing minority share of the population and the persistent racial gap in homeownership acts to reduce...

Recurrent list-price reductions of a house may signal a movement towards fair pricing or underpricing, and the impatience of sellers to enter a sell transaction more quickly. Recurrent list-price reductions may also provide a market signal that the listings are problematic and thus harder to...

In this paper we propose a Bayesian estimation approach for a spatial autoregressive logit specification. Our approach relieson recent advances in Bayesian computing, making use of Pólya-Gamma sampling for Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithms.The proposed specification assumes that the...

Following the model-based approach of Ellison and Glaeser (1997), we develop a framework to test for the link between concentration, spatial clustering and the size of plants. Concentration is an a-spatial concept of variability that can be measured with the standard locational Gini or the more...