In the 1970s, taxation of "windfall" profits from primary products and intervention in trade and production has tempted governments into expansionary fiscal policies while stifling the private sector and depressing growth. However, the experience of the recent coffee boom has so far been more...

This paper analyses the effects on private consumption from an increase in productive and unproductive public spending. A new-Keynesian model incorporating price and wage rigidities, monetary policy and various fiscal rules is developed and estimated, using Bayesian techniques, to capture the...

Empirical estimates of the effects of fiscal policy tend to be relatively imprecisely estimated. We contend that this is largely due to inadequately controlling for the information set of agents. Given the large increases in government spending on the horizon in the U.S., it is imperative that...

In this paper, we estimate the effect of defense spending on the U.S. macroeconomy since World War II. First, we construct a new panel dataset of state-level federal defense contracts. Second, we sum observations across states and, using the resulting time series, estimate the aggregate effect...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government spending and private consumption in the UK, for which there is scarce previous empirical evidence. We disaggregate public expenditure into three categories and search for the corresponding private consumption...

We explore the underlying determinants of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy and tax and social security reform using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model (GFM). We show that the planning horizon of consumers, access to financial markets, and the elasticity of labor supply, as well as the...

In 2008, governments in many countries embarked on large fiscal expenditure programmes, with the intention to support the economy and prevent a more serious recession. In this study, the overall impact of a substantial increase in fiscal expenditure is considered by providing a novel analysis of...

In this paper, I estimate a structural panel vector autoregression to study the consequences of changes in U.S. state government fiscal policies for local economic activity in the short-term. My main result is that the state-level spending multiplier is relatively small and the tax multiplier...

We analyze whether estimated multiplier effects are systematically higher if the economy suffers a downturn. For that purpose, we conduct a meta-regression analysis on a unique data set of 98 empirical studies with more than 1800 observations on multiplier effects and control for regime...