We simulate a simplified version of the price process including bubbles and crashes proposed in Kreuser and Sornette (2018). The price process is defined as a geometric random walk combined with jumps modelled by separate, discrete distributions associated with positive (and negative) bubbles....

As common practice, oil studies in the economic literature are carried out by taking the correct specification of a model as given, and ignoring the problem of estimating overly optimistic confidence sets. This means that model uncertainty is pervasive in the empirical results. In this work I...

The hypothesis of structural stability that the regression coefficients do not change over time is central to all applications of linear regression models. It is rather surprising that existing theory as well as practice focuses on testing for structural change under homoskedasticity – that...

We propose a strategy for assessing structural stability in time-series frameworks when potential change dates are unknown. Existing tests for structural stability have proven to be effective in detecting the presence of structural change, but procedures for identifying timing are highly...

Market risk management is one of the key factors to success in managing financial institutions. Underestimated risk can have desastrous consequences for individual companies and even whole economies, not least as could be seen during the recent crises. Overestimated risk, on the other side, may...

A general theoretical and empirical framework is developed for assessing the potential of a vertically integrated firm to foreclose downstream competitors. Using this framework a policymaker may also evaluate the empirical welfare effects from a vertically integrated firm raising rivals' costs....

A review of the theoretical properties of the GMM with a continuum of moment conditions is presented. Numerical methods for its implementation are discussed. A simulation study based on the stable distribution and an empirical application based on the autoregressive variance Gamma model are...

An analogue can be made between: (a) the slow pace at which species adapt to an environment, which often results in the emergence of a new distinct species out of a once homogeneous genetic pool, and (b) the slow changes that take place over time within a fund, mutating its investment style. A...

An analogue can be made between: (a) the slow pace at which species adapt to an environment, which often results in the emergence of a new distinct species out of a once homogeneous genetic pool, and (b) the slow changes that take place over time within a fund, with several co-existing...