Measuring bias is important as it helps identify flaws in quantitative forecasting methods or judgmental forecasts. It … can, therefore, potentially help improve forecasts. Despite this, bias tends to be under represented in the literature …: many studies focus solely on measuring accuracy. Methods for assessing bias in single series are relatively well known and …

almost all these papers ignore the bias in the estimated standard errors that serial correlation introduces. This is … serially correlated, which will exacerbate the bias in standard errors. To illustrate the severity of this issue, we randomly …